No, it´s not only the employment figures, the narrowing current account deficit nor the improving industrial production figures that economists such as Alan Greenspan will likely be looking at first when determining whether or not the Turkish economy is on its way up and whether there is light at the end of the tunnel.

Such indicators, as many have suggested, will need to form a trend over several months before anything can be predicted with any accuracy. No, it´s not to these indicators but rather a quirky little economic footnote that Greenspan will likely be looking at when deciding whether the economy is on its way up: men´s underwear sales.

Gauging the state of the economy is a tricky business. While standard economic theories rely on such variables as home foreclosure numbers, unemployment figures, the number of credit card defaults and so on in order to figure out if the economy has tanked, some economists, such as Greenspan, have suggested that a more accurate, if not eccentric barometer of the economy lies in men´s dresser drawers. Much like a canary used to detect “undetectable” gases in a coal mine.

The good news is that sales in men´s underwear lend credence to the view that Turkey´s increasing capacity utilization and industrial output are not just temporary deviations but rather signs that Turkey´s economy has at long last begun bottoming out.

As recounted by National Public Radio (NPR) announcer Robert Krulwich in 2008, Greenspan believed that men´s briefs were amongst the most accurate indicators of the state of a crisis. "If you look at sales of male underpants, it´s just pretty much a flat line, it hardly ever changes,” said Krulwich. “But on those few occasions where it dips that means that men are so pinched that they are deciding not to replace underpants. And [Greenspan] said ´that is almost always a prescient, forward impression that here comes trouble´.”

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Well guys, it´s time to tell.....

Don´t know about in Turkey but I´m pretty sure in the UK that as far as the married men go, in the majority of cases it´s their wives that buy their underpants for them - along with most of their clothes - so it´s the Turkish wives you should ask!  My God - can you imagine if we let them go out dressed in clothes they had chosen themselves!!!  

(....to be fair this is probably not true of my sons´  generation - bit more interest in clothes there!!) 

 Is there anything wrong with a yellow flowered tie on a purple checkered shirt, a pair of green striped trousers, blue socks completed with brown shoes?

 Hey! Where were you hiding???  Absolutely nothing - if you are colour-blind or maybe even blind!! 

 That´s quite true. Actually, it applies to all sorts of clothes. After hearing a few negative comments like the one about how I am unable  to match a tie with a shirt, I left all garment shopping tasks to my wife.

There are certain people in the business life though and a few of them happen to be my friends. These guys are kind of greedy in money matters. They always choose their own garments and have a distinctive taste in  perfume brands, watches, ties, shirts, jackets and shoes. A number of them even die up their hair. They go on diets to appear fit.

After these explanations you´d probably guess how unlikely it is for Mr. Greenspan to monitor my shopping activities in order to come to a conclusion about the future of the economy.

Incidentally, in my opinion, the real causes behind this recent crisis is the unbelievably increased appetite for consumption. Driven by an unsatiable greed, this consumption craze has created a generation ready to take any risk to drive a fancy car and to live in a 300 square meter apartment.

The ending of the cold war era positioned the Capitalist economic model as the only alternative which is highly prosperous, infallible and right in its essence. The positive mood propelled the countries run by a capitalist system to new heights. It is very much like the Galatasaray of the early 2000´s.  No one gave them any chance against the likes of AC Milan or Real Madrid, Liverpool etc. but they made history when they won the UEFA and SUPER cups in the year 2000. This victory can be attributed to the overconfidence of the players and the supporters of the Galatasaray football team.

We still believe in the system but we are beginning to see the limits of it. We are facing the corruption element, the malicious capacity of speculators and ultimately how it is impossible to create happiness over the sufferings of masses (e.g. China). Maybe someday, people will recognize that the value of seemingly petty occupations (for example in this country teaching is scorned a bit but salesmanship is praised) are far greater indeed.

I like the Scandinavian attitude about vocations. You can be a garbage collector but this doesn´t mean you have a lesser job. You can coach a football team, get tennis lessons, play flute at a bar at the weekends and feel proud of your contribution to society. Of course, for this to be possible, you need to be a well paid garbage collector. The rest of the world meanwhile are chasing China type opportunities where resources can be drained as quickly and efficiently as possible without minding what the consequences would be.  There must still be a way out somewhere... 

What makes me laugh about men and their choice of underwear, is what they consider as sexy - I would only ever use as a cleaning cloth!

 How much cleaning do you do?

 Does anyone ever really wear those tidy-whities anymore???