Turkey is home to many ethnic groups, with people who migrated to Turkey from Bulgaria, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Macedonia, Kosovo and Albania -- who define themselves as “Rumelia-Balkan immigrants” -- the second largest ethnic group after the Kurds. Speaking to Sunday´s Zaman, Rumelia-Balkan Federation President Süheyl Çobanoğlu complained that migrants from Rumelia and Balkan countries are not adequately represented in the Turkish Parliament.

“We make up one third of Turkey’s population, but the number of our representatives in Parliament hardly reaches 25,” he said. According to Çobanoğlu, his federation held frequent contacts with leaders of political parties during the run-up to the June 12 general elections, but candidates representing the Rumelia and Balkan population in Turkey have decreased since 2007. The Rumelia-Balkan Federation brings together around 2,200 associations and foundations in 32 Turkish provinces.

The June general elections are not likely to bring surprising results at all. For most, it is almost certain that the governing Justice and Development Party (AK Party) will receive the public support necessary to set up a single-party government for a third successive term in office. While the AK Party is expected to receive at least 45 percent of the national vote, its major rival, the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), is expected to win around 25 percent of the vote, according to opinion polls carried out by different polling companies. And the opposition Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) is likely to barely pass the 10 percent election threshold.

Political parties in Turkey are willing to receive the support of ethnic groups and local communities as such support usually means “mass” or “block” votes. When an ethnic group or a local community decides to support a political party usually all of its members vote for the same party, which means thousands of votes at a time. For this reason, political parties usually nominate candidates for the post of deputy from such groups or communities to draw their support in elections.

While some ethnic groups and local communities tend to announce which political party they will support in the elections beforehand, some others prefer not to make such an announcement. Some others announce which political parties they will not lend support to in elections because of their negligence to demands coming from ethnic groups and local communities.

Which ethnic group to support which party?

Kurds to support AK Party, BDP: A majority of the Kurdish population in Turkey is likely to vote for either the AK Party or independent candidates supported by the pro-Kurdish Peace and Democracy Party (BDP) on June 12. Fearing that it will fail to pass the election threshold if it enters the elections as a party, the BDP urged its candidates to run as independent candidates in the June polls. If the independent candidates manage to get elected and their number reaches 20 in Parliament, then they will form a parliamentary group on behalf of the BDP.

Kurdish voters seem unlikely to vote for the CHP, the MHP or other political parties in the elections. However, it is still unclear what kind of an impact the election campaign held in largely Kurdish-populated provinces such as Diyarbakır and Hakkari by the CHP will have on voters there. The MHP is scheduled to hold a campaign in Diyarbakır on June 6. The two parties had not traveled to many eastern and southeastern provinces for election rallies for about the 10 past years.

Balkan immigrants likely choose AK Party, CHP: Immigrant groups from Balkan countries mainly supported the MHP in the July 2007 general elections. However, they have decided not to support the MHP in this year’s elections after the MHP nominated Özcan Pehlivanoğlu, the former head of the Rumelia-Balkan Federation, in an area where he is unlikely to get elected. “We are sorry to see that Pehlivanoğlu was nominated for a district in İstanbul from which he has almost no chance to get elected. There is no need to force our members to vote for a candidate [and his party, namely the MHP,] who will not get elected. Our members will vote for any political party and candidate they like freely,” Çobanoğlu stated. Sunday’s Zaman has learned that Balkan immigrants are highly likely to vote for the AK Party and the CHP on June 12.

Western Thracians prefer AK Party, CHP: There is a considerable number of voters among people who migrated to Turkey from Western Thrace in Bursa, İzmit and İzmir. Western Thracians in Bursa and İzmit mainly voted for the AK Party in the last two general elections -- in 2002 and 2007 -- while the ones in İzmir voted for the CHP. They are not expected to change their voting tendencies in the June elections.

AK Party popular among Circassians: The Circassian population living in Turkey is likely to cast “mass votes.” They usually decide to vote for a political party and do so as a mass despite the fact that they may have different opinions or ideologies. The AK Party is popular among most Circassians. The AK Party is stronger than its rivals in Sakarya, Düzce and Kayseri thanks to the support of the Circassian population there. Some Circassian groups that come from a leftist ideology, however, prefer to vote for the CHP in elections. It is estimated that there are 8 million Circassians in Turkey. Three million of them are eligible to vote on June 12.

Majority of Georgians to vote for AK Party: An overwhelming majority of Georgians in Turkey are expected to vote for the AK Party in the June elections. They are mainly living in Artvin, Ordu, Amasya, Sakarya and Bursa. Their population reaches 2 million, according to official data. The AK Party is likely to sweep the majority of votes in those provinces thanks to the support of Georgian voters.

Arabs, Turkmens and Tatars divided in support for political parties: While Arabs in southeastern Turkey mainly support the AK Party in elections, Arabs in Mersin and Hatay are likely to support the CHP on June 12. Iraqi Turkmens are expected to lend support to the AK Party in this month’s general elections, but Turkmens coming from other countries will most likely support the MHP and the AK Party. Tatars, on the other hand, who are mainly based in central Eskişehir province, have traditionally voted for the CHP, and they are expected to do the same on June 12.