Exit, voice and loyalty in the Netherlands

Hendrik P. van Dalen   Kène Henkens
6 October 2008

Native Dutch are emigrating from the Netherlands in surprisingly large numbers. This column shows that most Dutch emigrants are choosing to exit due to dissatisfaction with the quality of the public domain, particularly high population density. Is their exit a vote of no confidence in the Dutch government?

For the fifth year in a row, emigration from the Netherlands exceeded immigration last year, reaching 123,000 emigrants, which amounts to 7.5 emigrants per 1000 inhabitants. Dutch media has repeatedly reported this phenomenon because it caught demographic forecasters by surprise. The last emigration wave occurred fifty years ago, and at present the Netherlands is the only Western European country experiencing net emigration, although similar trends are visible in the UK (Salt and Rees, 2006) and to lesser extent in Germany.
People leaving the Netherlands on such a large scale has worried the media and politicians. The big Dutch puzzle is that it contradicts common knowledge and economic logic. The reason why immigrants come to the United States or Europe has been widely, studied and the general driving force behind these migration flows is thought to be a higher standard of living (cf. Hatton and Williamson, 2005). The Netherlands is one of the most prosperous countries in the world, so why are people leaving a country that has been immigrants’ destination for so many years?

To answer this question, we examined national data to see who has left and surveyed a representative sample of the Dutch in 2005 to learn who had emigration plans. To generate more in-depth insight into the characteristics of the Dutch emigrant, we also carried out a survey among a focus group of potential emigrants who had visited an emigrants’ fair. In 2007, with the help of Statistics Netherlands, we tracked the whereabouts of all those surveyed in 2005.

Who has left?

National emigration figures for 1999 to 2006 show that men are twice as likely to emigrate as women, and it is mostly the young (under 3 who emigrate. Furthermore, it is the Dutch in the top decile of the income distribution who are most likely to emigrate. Sixty-nine percent of Dutch emigrants choose a European destination. It should not be a surprise that most emigrants move to one of the neighbouring countries Germany and Belgium. However, it is well established that this applies mainly to cross-border migration, where people live just across the border and still work in the Netherlands. High housing and land prices in the Netherlands drive many to move to Belgium or Germany, which offer spacious houses that are almost unaffordable for middle-income households in the Netherlands. When Belgium and Germany are left out of the equation, 31% of emigrants are headed to European destinations. The US and Canada account for another 15%. Table 1 lists the top ten destinations for native Dutch emigrants.

Table 1 Where do Dutch emigrants go?

Source: Statistics Netherlands

Why leave?

Based on our emigration survey in 2005, we established that 3% of the Dutch population had rather firm emigration plans. Many fulfilled their intentions: 24% had left after two years. Considering the fact that emigration is a complex process tied up with a lot of red tape and long-lasting problems such as selling a house or a business, this percentage is quite high.

The thousand-dollar question surrounding the Dutch emigration wave is, of course, why leave? Examining the determinants of emigration intentions and subsequent actions reveals a clear picture. The determinants may classified into two groups: (a) the individual characteristics that one would expect to be relevant if emigration were a matter of private gains (like age, human capital, health, networks, psychological personality characteristics) and (b) the provision and perceived quality of the public domain of life in the Netherlands. Every individual depends on the actions and solidarity of others and perhaps more so in a crowded country such as the Netherlands which is also known for its extensive welfare state. The following elements were determined – based on a statistical analysis – to represent the public domain: (1) the Dutch welfare state and institutions which provide the public goods and services (law and order, social security, education, health care); (2) the quality of the public space (noise pollution, space, nature, crowdedness); and (3) the evaluation of social problems addressed by the government, like crime, pollution, and ethnic tensions.

The results of our study reveal that both the private and the public domain of life are important to understanding emigration from a high-income country like the Netherlands. The more negative one is about the public domain, the more likely it is that one will actually emigrate (see Figure 1). Of course, the Dutch who stayed are also negative about large parts of the public domain, but emigrants (“movers” and “dreamers”, i.e. those who intended to emigrate but have not yet) are far more negative than those staying behind.¹ The biggest difference between emigrants and those staying behind is the evaluation of the quality of public space. Without knowing how people feel about the quality of the public domain, large-scale emigration would remain a mystery.

Figure 1 Evaluation of the living conditions in the Netherlands, by migration status

Note: Dreamers are Dutch who intended to emigrate but have not (yet) done so; stayers are Dutch who did not intend to emigrate and have indeed stayed; movers are Dutch who intended to emigrate and have done so.

Of course, one may wonder whether all those aspects the emigrants loath will be much better in their country of destination. At the time of the survey, we only asked about their expectations, and in this respect all emigrants believed the public space would be far better and the social problems less severe in their “promised land”. It is striking that only 17% believed they would attain a higher income abroad and even 29% expected that their income would drop.

Who remains loyal?

The fact that Dutch leave their country for reasons that are directly tied to the quality of the public domain makes one wonder how many, disillusioned with exercising their voice, would abandon loyalty and head for the exit (Hirschman, 197. We performed a counterfactual analysis to assess the importance of the public domain in explaining emigration intensions (see Van Dalen and Henkens, 2007). Our calculations suggest that if all Dutch held extremely negative evaluations of the public domain, approximately 20% of the population (16 million inhabitants) would be inclined to leave the country. Population pressure is an especially strong driving force. Of course, one could also turn this gloomy outcome around, as80% remain loyal. However, this “loyal” majority must be a very frustrated group of people.

Conclusion

Our study suggests that the quality of the public domain is an important part of quality of life, and those Dutch who have moved are implicitly casting a vote of no confidence in those who govern the nation. This lesson may also be of some relevance to other European countries where emigration has taken off and crowdedness has become a concern. For example, England’s population density is similar to that of the Netherlands (394 inhabitants per square kilometre), and British surveys seem to register the same type of dissatisfaction witnessed in the Netherlands.

As people forego “voice” by choosing their “exit” option, national governments find themselves in competitions previously restricted to local governments. Perhaps that is the true sign that we live in the age of globalisation.

forever DJ))xxxxx

What about Turks leaving Turkey? And why is Turkey not in the above table?  Let our Dutch friends show us the percentage of Turks who have emigrated to Netherlands.

 gezegen I hope u will write an article about ´´Why Turks are leaving TR?´´ then I will share it here

and u should make a survey about emigration to holland 1. reason to move netherlands: unemployment turkish man met with a dutch girl in resort area then they move to Netherland some rarely move to TR if u move they go back to their own country soon

forever DJ xxx

ps: I should change my nickname.it must be ´´Flemish DJ´´

Why does anyone leave the country they were born in?

• Fear of torture or death
• Wars, poverty, desertification
• Dissatisfaction with their life and the rose tinted specs view that life is better somewhere else.
• Dissatisfaction with the political system of their country
• Exitment of living somewhere different
• The promise of better paid work or even just some work
• Nice cosy social security system, health service etc
• Married or lives with someone from the new country
• Retirement to a holiday destination 
• Having your ashes scattered in a special place (the end!)

some ideas, not in any particular order.................

p.s Why are you picking on the Netherlands, JaniTardis (or the New Doctor Who!) fed up with the evil Brits??? haha

Why don´t you first write an article about "Why are the Dutch leaving the Netherlands" (instead of ´copy-paste´? Then I would write mine.

Well done! But not enough! Give some more details. And then remember Jesus Christ, in whom those evil Dutch believe and who says "First take the plank out of your own eye, and then you will see clearly to take the speck out of your brother’s." 

dj foever

thank you

an interesting article

i think the same thing is happening in uk.

Very interesting article. Nice to read the several emigration reasons summed up. Can you please give the source (copyright issues!). 

(BTW Don´t worry, this cloggie will stay where she is. I won´t emigrate (to Turkey  or elsewhere.)

Belgium is not a big surprise They speak the same language there, you can still walk to your parents´ house in Holland, and if you earn good money you pay less taxes there. It also explains the relatively higher age of the people who move there.

For me moving to Belgium would be easier then moving to the North of Holland. I live rather south... and hour away from my Belgium friends, but 3 hours away from my cousin in the North of Holland... Yes, in Dutch terms 3 hours is a LOT!

Offffff!  You cloggies...you were supposed to get upset and be outraged that people are moving away from your beloved homeland!  How dare you be so calm and accepting!  What about the cheese and the clogs....who will be left to make them?

Immigrating Turks?

It will never work!   

 great and funny post:===))))))

forever DJ))xxxxxx

 I m specialised in British dont worry)

forever DJxxx

I don´t know if the tiny country of the Netherlands will be able to accomodate any more Turks since my fellow Poles have started going there in hundreds

I´m not surprised the Dutch immigrate, I´ve heard the cost of housing is ridiculously high (well, it´s understandable if we take into account the ratio of population to the land available).

 Oh yeah...we Dutch are becoming more  nationalistic according to some, so let me make the appropriate remark... here goes...uhum...

The Dutch are only moving abroad because we want to INFUSE other countries with our SUPERIOR Dutch culture! And after those stupid foreigners see how GREAT Holland is (ad thus how stupid their own countries are), they will all want to come here! Which ofcourse we will not allow for most people, since our visa system only allows the richest people in. And this will make Holland even richer then it already is! This means more sales of cheese and cloggs inside the country, and ofcourse also abroad since people there also understand (because of the infusion-program) how great those things are!

Oh, something special for janissaridis... Tell me why all those people from Turkey are going to Holland, WHY?! Must be to experience our great superior country!

 we turks like travelling and northern countries our travel aim is not just for dutches just for norrthern scenery and sun setting

forever DJxxxxxxxxx

I was so worried about getting cheese and cloggs barba!  Can you send some cloggies to Texas?  We would like to have some of your superior culture here as well.   

Or maybe to see your famous cows and measure in-depth how many kilos of milk a dutch cow would give a day!

Send? You expect a lot of us superior cloggies! We don´t deliver, just pick them up.

you all european countries and europeans have superiority comlex. this complex destroyed many nations and countries in africa, middle east for centuries....you all grew up with  their money, gold which u stole from them..you made them poor and you became rich..you made them slaves for centuries...now u are talking about superior country. is your country become rich with cow and its milk???

now you are insulting turks and middle easterns ppl...you will never make them slaves, we thaught them who is turks in world war 1, it seems you forgot us ,dont worry we can remind you who is turks. we turks, and kurds might have lived in tents but we have never feed others food...

forever DJxxx

Are you sure all European countries grew wealthy by abusing Africa? Hmm let me think...how many colonies did Poland have? Hmmm...none? And it is a European country.

And what do you mean by superiority complex? True, I like the idea of living in the world where my rights are not limited by my gender and in the area that doesn´t block websites only because a national hero is ridiculed there. Also, I like it that I can laught at whichever fictional character I please and do not face death threats.

Who´s talking about slavery? And what do you mean by "not feeding others food?" If I´m not mistaken there´s a few million Turkish immigrants, well less than Dutch immigrants in Turkey. Seems that foreign bread is edible (and often desirable) after all

And I think you missed a lot of humour in evil Cloggies´ posts

Humor? BM and I were very serious......

 I dont mean your poor poland I know how polish are treated in Europe.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2007/oct/07/immigration.immigrationandpublicservices

and there are many posts in internet, searching, teasing why polish ppl stupid..I dont think so...I like polish ppl but not more than dutchs

if u are clever polish u have could guessed that turks are stealing dutches food, they work and get..so tell me what UK, FR, NETHERLANDS,italy have done in Africa, they stole african golden, money for centuries and built politics on their nation such as Racial Hygiene...

forever DJxxxxxxxxx

My darlnik JD forever xxx

FYI, Poles are not treated bad at all. They may get dirtier jobs, thats true, because of difference in education bla blah. But I assure you that in UK Poles are not treated bad. They are entitled to everything here.

Please, dont call Poles poor. They are not. They are hard working people. They just have wrong people in the government who dont manage the wealth properly. If only they released tax a bit and encouraged smaller buisness by not suppressing them with so many papers I think the country would bloom.

... wasn´t Turkey a colonizig empire once too? I thought the Turks were so proud of their Byzantine and Ottoman heritage. Ah yes, true Turkish pride... twist and turn history so you can always come out on top as the true, heroic winner.... Well, it won´t work!!! I know Dutch people rule! We even stole those tulips from Turkey and made it the best known flower in Holland. HA! We can do it again, so you´d better be careful. Before you know it we will steal baklava, improve it, and convince everybody that it´s Dutch!!! I´m thinking we will add some kind of milk or cheese or something... maybe some "drop"... yes... it will work..one step closer to full world leadership....

Baklava with droptaste? Hmmm... we need to think of something more appealing.

Stroopwafel-baklava!!! Brilliant!!!

Deal! I´m in.

 welldone, u summerized situation Im changing my nickname,,

,

Im dutch janissaridis but I cant forget my greek side;P

forever dutch janis:===)))xxxxx

One down, millions to go!

You think he knows about ´inburgering´?